Gay marriage question evolves one state at a time

Feb 23, 2012 | Posted by: roboblogger | Full story: Tri-cityherald.com

Though same-sex marriage is racking up victories in state legislatures and federal courts, and gaining public support, especially among younger people, it could be years before gay and lesbian couples can marry in all 50 states.

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“Love thy neighbor!”

Since: Dec 06

Westland , MI

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Judge it!
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#1
Feb 24, 2012
 

Judged:

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Unless the SCOTUS gets into the act, it will be years befor MI ever lets us wed. I'll be dead and buried before then.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

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#2
Feb 24, 2012
 
This article pretty much nails it.

The process will likely play out state-by-state for the remainder of this decade. By 2016 it's likely we'll have maxed out with about 16 states with marriage equality, and federal recognition of marriages contracted in those states. The rest of the states either have constitutional bans which will be much harder to overturn through legislation/referendum, or are simply too opposed to realistically expect legislative passage.

At that point we're left with the courts, and that will likely take the rest of the decade (or longer) just to get the right case to the right SCOTUS. If the Dems get to replace Ginsburg & Kennedy and/or Scalia before the end of the decade with liberal/progressive justices, then we're good to go. However, if the GOP get to replace them with typical conservative justices, we wan kiss national marriage equality good-bye for at least 20 years.

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