Northeast U.S. May Experience Coldest Winter in a Decade, Forecaster Says

That is so ridiculous beyond belief! There is absolutely no connection between El Nino warmer, or colder ocean currents, and atmospheric concequences be it dry cold wind factors, or more
earlier rains/snow in the North Eastern U.S.A. ex-cept by coincidence! Arctic Polar air masses flowing south in Winter are just as constantly cold as those in the Spring, Summer, and Fall!
The only difference is the Winter orientation of the Earth orbiting the Sun at about 15 degree
tilt, whence the rays span a much wider area,
than the virtually always narrowly focused Equatorial region, practically hot all year round!
Both cold dry Polar air masses, and moist hot
equatorial ones collide, and in the Summer the hotter air temperatures in the North East warm
the colder Arctic currents, increasing the dew
point of rain precipitation! In the Winter, colder Arctic air flowing south is not warmed by colder atmosphere, so incoming hot Equatorial
air currents lowers the dew point, and more rains/snows makes the area often below zero!
Pacific 'currents' are heated by subterranean
Earth's inner molten core, with most of the daylight atmospheric absorbed Solar heat, being given up at night when there is no competing
incoming solar flux! Insignificant cause and effect relationship, when compared with the
enthalpy differences between Winter atmospheric
temperature; cold Polar air masses; and warm moist Equatorial air masses, in the North East
of the U.S.A, and Canada!
F.M.

Now THIS I can believe. Last winter was the coldest and snowiest in a LONG, LONG time. This summer was the coldest I can remember. It may have hit 90 once or twice, but there was almost no need for AC. Much of the summer was in the 70's. My furnace was even running in August. I see this continueing. It's pretty darn chilly right now, in fact.

Answer to "Raptor in Michigan #2": I think its
just psychological bias, very common among lay Science people who write on the same "CO2AGW"
subject, as you have Raptor without really being pragmatically conscious about statistical analysis
as I have done in my 45 year career as an R&D Chemist on just about every Production Control
processes upscaled from laboratory, with numerous interwoven variables, until the optimum concentra-tion of reactants, time, temperature, hourly
changes, human factors, QA are finally calibrated, and handed over to Production!
Sometimes about a month back on a "CO2AGW" thread
I questioned a poster's statement that CO2AGW cau-
sed Lake Erie in Ohio, not to freeze anymore!
Suspecting heat exchanges from the cooling of about 6 nuclear reactors, around its shores,
I ran 2, one in the Fall, another in city Clevel-and beginning of Winter, hi/lo/mean temperatures
on the same day, September/December analysis
from the 'yahoo' Farmer's Almanac site, from
2008 back to I think 1968! I found NO statistical changes,{std. deviation}, snow fall in inches {December only} over the 40 years! Albeit a couple years did show some anomalies, but they were within the standard deviation hi/lo range! So I concluded IF that poster's observation was objectively correct, Lake Erie was being warmed by hot nuclear reactor cooling exchanges, and not significantly by GW!
F.M.

Its really not so surprising at these very insensitive icon judges, who have absolutly no
formal Scientific education! My God I'm giving
$64,000 worth of education, plus 45 years R$D experience, for nothing! Never seen such rudeness
on a public forum! No wonder just like back in De-
cember 1997 at the "Kyoto" Summit, nothing will be accomplished this December 2009 at Copenhagen!
God I rather see my taxation dollars go to Health Care Reforms, instead of public schools!
And the very intent of all my posts is to encourage public schools to teach critical thinking, so that an intelligent debate can smooth out possible irregularities in the con-
clusions! After all can you imagine an experienced chemist/ chemical engineer sitting at a Fossil Fuel Power plant meeting, and asked to
design a system to force feed into the ground
thousands of tons of compressed CO2/H2O vapor {or even dried CO2} stack emissions, day in, day out; week in week out; month in month out; year in year out; and not quit his job in disgust when Nature's Carbon Cycle for millions of years, has reabsorbed CO2/heat through photosynthesis; and repricipated the excess as volatile carbonic acid
by rains, snows, blizzards, storms and almost daily rains, to keep CO2 at a 0.03% to 0.04%
level for centuries now, except for a 5ppm.{0.005%} rise at sea level, and 0.0005% 10 miles up in the climate controlling atmosphere every
DECADE since lets say the 1900 Industrial Revolution! Its just a matter in replacing the 1,000,000 acres/month century old Carbon Cycle
Deforestation, to reabsorb that 0.005%! With very doable 6% to 8% reductions whereever possible
in the next 12 years; and help out countries whose
vehicles are not equipped with the latest smog control devices!!
F.M.

Hmmm, a weak El Niño will annoy alarmists who've been praying for a strong one to prove that CO2 is the force of evil AGW.
Somehow, it just doesn't make sense to wish for something nasty just to prove a point, or does it?
A cold winter won't do much to attract more members to the warmist cult, that's for sure.

frank miller wrote:

Answer to "Raptor in Michigan #2": I think its
just psychological bias, very common among lay Science people who write on the same "CO2AGW"
subject, as you have Raptor without really being pragmatically conscious about statistical analysis
as I have done in my 45 year career as an R&D Chemist on just about every Production Control
processes upscaled from laboratory, with numerous interwoven variables, until the optimum concentra-tion of reactants, time, temperature, hourly
changes, human factors, QA are finally calibrated, and handed over to Production!
Sometimes about a month back on a "CO2AGW" thread
I questioned a poster's statement that CO2AGW cau-
sed Lake Erie in Ohio, not to freeze anymore!
Suspecting heat exchanges from the cooling of about 6 nuclear reactors, around its shores,
I ran 2, one in the Fall, another in city Clevel-and beginning of Winter, hi/lo/mean temperatures
on the same day, September/December analysis
from the 'yahoo' Farmer's Almanac site, from
2008 back to I think 1968! I found NO statistical changes,{std. deviation}, snow fall in inches {December only} over the 40 years! Albeit a couple years did show some anomalies, but they were within the standard deviation hi/lo range! So I concluded IF that poster's observation was objectively correct, Lake Erie was being warmed by hot nuclear reactor cooling exchanges, and not significantly by GW!
F.M.

One can be book smart and know about "statistical analysis," "calibrations" and "interwoven variables," but sometimes real life has nothing to do with those. If Lake Erie didn't freeze, maybe the winter was more mild than previous years? Maybe it was windier which cause more wave action, thus prevented freezing. Maybe there were just enough warmer days mixed in with freezing days that ice just didn't get a chance to develop.

Same can be said for bird distributions. Some say birds are ranging farther north because of global warming. But could it be that because more people are feeding them they stick around? More people are watching them then ever before, too, so they are seen more often. They could have been there all along and we just never noticed.

Add the negative phase of the AMO to the negative phase of the PDO and a weak El Nino and you have the recipe for a cold season in the NE.

Typically El Ninos are weaker and less frequent when the PDO is in a negative phase.

The AMO was determined to have switched to the negative phase in January 2009. The PDO switched in 2002. TSI levels dropped in 2002. Temperatures began to drop in 2002. CO2 levels have continued to climb.

A cherry picked graph from 2002 thru 2009, UAH, RSS, GISS and Hadcrut.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/f...

NASA graph of the temperature trend of the 2002 to 2008 time period. There is still global warming in northern Asia, this is where the majority of global warming shows up throughout the entire record.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_...

Answer to 'Raptor in Michigan'#6 <my quoted #3>?
As an amateur ornithologist you are really doing
statistical analysis in your head, without formally writing it in a report lets say you were presenting to the Audibon Society, in studying migratory patterns of tagged birds in your area!
Ecological Methodology scientifically differen-
tiating between 'conjecture' and 'refutation'
to list a particular species on the endangered list would require formal patterns of births,
population densities, etc..to substantiate
your claim this particular bird's habitat
should be protected!
'Education is a Process, not a Result' and you'd be surprised how much new information one gets,
when performance patterns begin to emerge as in
my #3 post, after weeks , and weeks of syste-
matically collecting, analysing data to present to very cost conscious Management! If successful,
more and more difficult projects are given your way, as you become TRUSTED in presenting valid
conclusions!!
F.M.

Looks like FM got 'taken in' by the oil company shill called 'raptor'. Even more funny is 'fun facts' who likes to distort thing by simple tactics like compariing apples and oranges, or doing his own 'cherry picking'.,

Fact is that while past history suggests the cold winter, ENSO itself has been changing due to higher SSTs and more stratifiucation from AGW. The odds on this 'forecast' are getting longer.

Yeah sure Einstein 'NobodyYouKnow Toronto, Canada
#10:{God that has got to be the most juvenile
avitar name yet..?} El Nino dufus is from the coast of South America Covering Equador just about 100 miles south of the always warm-to-hot
Equator! It means didly, as per my #1 post NYK, to the Winter at opposite side North East America/Canada! Why do you think I come unprepared when I write posts, hey dufus? Every one has a Globe in their house except 'Nobody I
WouldTrustToKnow" #10, and his brilliant examples of 'no child left behind' Sesame Street icon
judges! Oh do you miss Mr.Rogers? Bless his soul though! " A lovely day in the neighborhood" was such a great way to open your vistas of imagina-
tion, by restricting your young normally thirsty-for-knowledge sub-teens minds, in a 500 square foot room, as opposed to me having crossed the Equator twice, once at 11, and the other at 19,
and being fested twice by King Neptune instead of
Miss Piggy, and Kermit! LOL! Except ignorance is no laughing matter!!
F.M.

NobodyYouKnow wrote:

Looks like FM got 'taken in' by the oil company shill called 'raptor'. Even more funny is 'fun facts' who likes to distort thing by simple tactics like compariing apples and oranges, or doing his own 'cherry picking'.,
Fact is that while past history suggests the cold winter, ENSO itself has been changing due to higher SSTs and more stratifiucation from AGW. The odds on this 'forecast' are getting longer.

The Farmer's Almanac says it will be a cold winter. The Farmers Almanac I purchased August 2008, stated that September 2009 would experience very cold temps at the end of the month..and what do you know, we have very cold temps crossing our country at this time.

When has there ever been a 'warm Winter' in the North East U.S./Canada cold Atlantic ocean areas,
'Fun Facts AOL #12 ?????! I remember Ceazer Chavez from Venezuela giving free heating oil
to freezing New Yorkers, Baltimore,etc.. in 2007/2008 or was it 2006?!
F.M.

frank miller wrote:

When has there ever been a 'warm Winter' in the North East U.S./Canada cold Atlantic ocean areas,
'Fun Facts AOL #12 ?????! I remember Ceazer Chavez from Venezuela giving free heating oil
to freezing New Yorkers, Baltimore,etc.. in 2007/2008 or was it 2006?!
F.M.

I remember that too, with the help of Patrick Kenendy, if I remember correctly.

Solar activity dropped of the scale in 2002. The PDO shifted from warm to cool, positive to negative, in 2002. Our country has been experiencing a decline in temperatures since that time. Now with the AMO shifting to negative in January 2009, there is a high likelyhood of even a cooler winter than those you correctly identified.

Looked for a warm winter, here's a couple of charts for the Boston area.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gis...

Concord

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gis...

Hartford, shorter time period ending in 2009

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gis...

Looks like the coolest times in recent history was in the 1960 time frame. Notice the rate of drop in temperatures during the last cool phase of the PDO, 1947 - 1977.

Micromanaging the weather is like "opening a box of chocolates, you never know what you gonna get",
a soft centre or a hard nut,'Fun Facts'#14/#15!!
F.M./C.S

Fun Facts wrote:

<quoted text>
The Farmer's Almanac says it will be a cold winter. The Farmers Almanac I purchased August 2008, stated that September 2009 would experience very cold temps at the end of the month..and what do you know, we have very cold temps crossing our country at this time.

Good to know that you are referencing an authoritative source.. Now, next year is going to be hot because the end is nigh right? Ends in fire?

LessHypeMoreFact wrote:

Good to know that you are referencing an authoritative source.. Now, next year is going to be hot because the end is nigh right? Ends in fire?

Fact.
Farmers Almanac and any of the old local farmers round here, have just as much chance of getting weather predictions right as any weather forecaster working with a computer.

Fun Facts wrote:

<quoted text>
The Farmer's Almanac says it will be a cold winter. The Farmers Almanac I purchased August 2008, stated that September 2009 would experience very cold temps at the end of the month..and what do you know, we have very cold temps crossing our country at this time.

The sun is in the southern hemisphere now. Could that have something to do with it?

Earthling wrote:

<quoted text>Fact.
Farmers Almanac and any of the old local farmers round here, have just as much chance of getting weather predictions right as any weather forecaster working with a computer.

I will make my own prediction. You heard it here first. I predict this October will be colder than next June.