It may convince you, but it's still a 50/50 chance.<quoted text> Wait a minute. I guess I owe you an apology. It finally dawned on me that if I get a non-reaction on the first try then I will automatically assume the second bottle is the remedy. OK, I'm sorry. But! A 'non-reaction' to a placebo-control on the first try would be enough to convince me homeopathy was real nontheless. That actually makes the experiment easier.
At some level you are going to decide before taking anything that you think the first bottle or the 2nd bottle is the "right" bottle. You may not know consciously that you picked one, but you will.
So, if you "think" the first bottle is the medicine and react to it and it turns out to be fake - that tells us something.
But, if you think the first bottle is the medicine and react to it and it turns out to be the right one - that's still just 50/50 that you picked the first one to be the right one.
Like I said, it's still 50/50.If I were to get a 'no-reaction' to placebo on the first try would it budge you to believing there might be more to homeopathy than just placebo? I mean considering I have never had a 'non-reaction' to the remedy. And if I were intentionally to overdose, I would certainly bnet I would never 'not react' to the rememdy.
Let's say subconsciously you think the first bottle is fake and you overdose on it and it is fake. That just tells us that subconsciously you happened to guess the right bottle.
The thing about science is this: Generally experiments are set up to disprove something not to prove something. It's very hard to "prove" something in an experiment.
That's why medicine uses studies and trials rather than experiments, you need lots of people and lots of attempts to get a statistically significant result.