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Minnesota Recount Live, Day 7: One numbers junkie's prediction ...

Full story: TwinCities.com

Things may not appear to be going as well as Democrat Al Franken may have hoped in the U.S. Senate recount with incumbent Republican Norm Coleman , but don't tell that to Nate Silver.

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Average Joe

Minneapolis, MN

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#1
Nov 25, 2008
 

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How cares what some liberal blogger thinks? Why is this headline news? I have a blog and predict a Coleman win by 1000. Do I get tomorrow's headline?
DemProcess

Fort Lauderdale, FL

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#2
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Average Joe wrote:
How cares what some liberal blogger thinks? Why is this headline news? I have a blog and predict a Coleman win by 1000. Do I get tomorrow's headline?
You, sir, are no Nate Silver.
Tybalt

Saint Paul, MN

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#3
Nov 25, 2008
 

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i don't care.

i don't care about anything.
Rad Rethuglican

Minneapolis, MN

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#5
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Tybalt wrote:
i don't care.
i don't care about anything.
That's why your posts are so meaningful to all of us. I wish some of your attitude would rub off on the Coleman campaign.

This guy Silver has some real talent with intepreting numbers. His predictions should be taken seriously. However, one has to wonder what kind of margin of error there is in the 27 vote prediction. Not much room for error when the number is that small. Time will march on and tell.
Rad Rethuglican

Minneapolis, MN

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#6
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Average Joe wrote:
How cares what some liberal blogger thinks? Why is this headline news? I have a blog and predict a Coleman win by 1000. Do I get tomorrow's headline?
What you should be exasperated about is that this story has been out there for the better part of a week and PPD is just getting around to it now.

As for Silver just being a "liberal blogger," I'd have to say that is not all that accurate. He uses complicated statistical models with a great deal of variables in the mix as well. I'd be pretty nervous if I was Normie, Larry Jacobs notwithstanding. Fasten your seat belts kids, I predict that the first two weeks of December are going to be a bumpy ride for Colemanistas.
you do realize

Los Angeles, CA

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#8
Nov 25, 2008
 

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FOR SEVERAL MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION I WAS APPROACHED BY REPUBLICANS OFFERING TO 'HELP' ME, EXPRESSING EMPATHY FOR THEIR PAST CRIMES (LISTED PRETTY COMPREHENSIVELY IN CASE 08-5515, FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT/CENTRAL DISTRICT, YA CAN FIND IT ON PACER). SINCE THEIR CRUSHING DEFEAT THEY'VE RETURNED TO THEIR OLD WAYS, I.E., TORTURE. GAS ATTACKS, ENERGY ATTACKS AIMED AT MY HEAD AND STOMACH, FOOD SPIKES, ETC. THESE ABJECT IDIOTS DO NOT REALIZE THAT POLITICAL VIEWS AREN'T FORMED IN THE PERIOD A FEW MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION, BUT EVOLVE OVER YEARS. PERHAPS THE PARTY CAN BE PERMANENTLY DISMANTLED--BY THE VOTERS--IN THE NEXT FEW ELECTIONS. 2008 WAS A GOOD START, THOUGH THOSE VICIOUS PIGS STILL HAVEN'T GOTTEN THE MESSAGE.
GLEN BROEMER

Joined: Dec 28, 2007

Comments: 3694

Clermont

ISP: Leesburg, FL

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#9
Nov 25, 2008
 
Florida is now saying "Thank God for Minnesota!"

But if Al Franken can win a senate seat, perhaps those who voted for Mickey Mouse weren't so far off base.
Dennis Kucinich

Omaha, NE

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#10
Nov 25, 2008
 
I second that emotion. beam me up.

“Twins Fan Since 1961”

Joined: Oct 1, 2008

Comments: 1490

St Paul Minnesota

ISP: Minneapolis, MN

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#11
Nov 25, 2008
 
you do realize wrote:
FOR SEVERAL MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION I WAS APPROACHED BY REPUBLICANS OFFERING TO 'HELP' ME, EXPRESSING EMPATHY FOR THEIR PAST CRIMES (LISTED PRETTY COMPREHENSIVELY IN CASE 08-5515, FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT/CENTRAL DISTRICT, YA CAN FIND IT ON PACER). SINCE THEIR CRUSHING DEFEAT THEY'VE RETURNED TO THEIR OLD WAYS, I.E., TORTURE. GAS ATTACKS, ENERGY ATTACKS AIMED AT MY HEAD AND STOMACH, FOOD SPIKES, ETC. THESE ABJECT IDIOTS DO NOT REALIZE THAT POLITICAL VIEWS AREN'T FORMED IN THE PERIOD A FEW MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION, BUT EVOLVE OVER YEARS. PERHAPS THE PARTY CAN BE PERMANENTLY DISMANTLED--BY THE VOTERS--IN THE NEXT FEW ELECTIONS. 2008 WAS A GOOD START, THOUGH THOSE VICIOUS PIGS STILL HAVEN'T GOTTEN THE MESSAGE.
GLEN BROEMER
Your right, every 4 years they evolve into something else! As soon as President Obama takes office, the masses will begin the process of taking him down! It is what it is!
jjj

Saint Paul, MN

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#12
Nov 25, 2008
 
Rad Rethuglican wrote:
<quoted text>
What you should be exasperated about is that this story has been out there for the better part of a week and PPD is just getting around to it now.
As for Silver just being a "liberal blogger," I'd have to say that is not all that accurate. He uses complicated statistical models with a great deal of variables in the mix as well. I'd be pretty nervous if I was Normie, Larry Jacobs notwithstanding. Fasten your seat belts kids, I predict that the first two weeks of December are going to be a bumpy ride for Colemanistas.

Perhaps we should just end the recount and take Mr. Silvers word for it? Or maybe we should base the outcome on which campaign collects more affidavits of people who "intended" to vote? If the two weeks of December are bumpy, it will only be because the DFL is stealing the election. On the positive side, I'm looking forward to six years of being able to say "accidental senator" fraken, "illegitimate senator" franken, and "landslide al".
jjj

Saint Paul, MN

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#13
Nov 25, 2008
 

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At the risk of being obvious, I think the DFL could have selected a much better candidate. There was a HUGE drop-off in the vote from Obama to Franken. I think just about anyone else the DFL could have nominated would have run much closer to Obama and ridden Obama's coattails to victory. Franken was just a lousy candidate, not only his abrasive personality but his "you should pay more taxes even though I don't pay mine" hypocrisy. If franken manages to steal this one (which I suspect he wiil) I hope he enjoys his one term, becasue there won't be a second - In six years there won;t be a presidential candidate to help him out. I also predict that he'll be as big a joke in the senate as Mark Dayton was.
P Wellstone

Saint Paul, MN

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#14
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Rad Rethuglican wrote:
<quoted text>
What you should be exasperated about is that this story has been out there for the better part of a week and PPD is just getting around to it now.
As for Silver just being a "liberal blogger," I'd have to say that is not all that accurate. He uses complicated statistical models with a great deal of variables in the mix as well. I'd be pretty nervous if I was Normie, Larry Jacobs notwithstanding. Fasten your seat belts kids, I predict that the first two weeks of December are going to be a bumpy ride for Colemanistas.
yeah he's no "liberal blogger" at all. That's why he's on with Rachel Maddow. LOL LOL
Steve

Minneapolis, MN

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#15
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Oh for goodness sakes the right wing is still upset and wants to tarnish Minnesota with the same brush of Florida or Ohio, those were the GOP stolen elections. Please the DFL does not need to steal any election this is Minnsota remember. The poster posing as Minnesotans need to go back to right wing nutland and stay out of the Minnesota political landscape. I can't wait for the end of this recount so the GOPers who feel the need to voice their assine opinions on what should happen in Minnesota will go back to their own states and clean their own GOP generated messes up.
P Wellstone

Saint Paul, MN

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#16
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Steve wrote:
Oh for goodness sakes the right wing is still upset and wants to tarnish Minnesota with the same brush of Florida or Ohio, those were the GOP stolen elections. Please the DFL does not need to steal any election this is Minnsota remember. The poster posing as Minnesotans need to go back to right wing nutland and stay out of the Minnesota political landscape. I can't wait for the end of this recount so the GOPers who feel the need to voice their assine opinions on what should happen in Minnesota will go back to their own states and clean their own GOP generated messes up.
You forgot to mention the GOP had Wellstone killed and fabricated 9/11 too -- LOL

Congratulations, you made yourself look like a total fool
Dam Demthuglicrat

Burnsville, MN

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#17
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Racist Rethuglican wrote:
<quoted text>
What you should be exasperated about is that this story has been out there for the better part of a week and PPD is just getting around to it now.
As for Silver just being a "liberal blogger," I'd have to say that is not all that accurate. He uses complicated statistical models with a great deal of variables in the mix as well. I'd be pretty nervous if I was Normie, Larry Jacobs notwithstanding. Fasten your seat belts kids, I predict that the first two weeks of December are going to be a bumpy ride for Colemanistas.
Get stocked up on Kleenex Racist. Franken is going to lose no matter how many "lost votes" are found, how many former campaign workers and ACORN volunteers worm their way into the recounts and liberal bloggers say different. It's going to be an even bumpier ride for you Frankenputzes and Demthuglicrats.
mark

Austin, MN

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#18
Nov 25, 2008
 
When the recount was declared I think all Minnesota voters knew that Al would win the recount. The Democrats have no morals and remember Paul Wellstone was only going to serve 2 terms, but he had to run for a 3rd to save the republic.
Tybalt

Saint Paul, MN

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#19
Nov 25, 2008
 

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i don't care. ... i don't care about anything.
Large Carbon Footprint

Minneapolis, MN

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#20
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Silver has predicted a Franken win by between 48 and 136 votes. With a margin of error of +/-200 votes, Franken could lose by as many as 152 votes or win by as many as 336 and still fall within the range of the prediction. This prediction is not based on anything tangible. Considering that Coleman started with a 215-vote lead, would it be impressive to make a prediction within a 488-vote range? Optical scanners recorded the votes, so the difference of 215 should remain fairly stable. With 75 percent of the vote counted, this so-called expert is not even within the very generous range he set for himself.
D Murphy

Minneapolis, MN

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#21
Nov 25, 2008
 

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Why are people from San Fran and L.A. commenting? We all know to take your comments with a grain of salt, if they would be anything besides liberal drivel it would be a miracle. Uh-oh, I said miracle, they might start bashing me as a stupid bible-thumper.
Tybalt

Saint Paul, MN

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#23
Nov 25, 2008
 

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i'll bet nate silver 50 dollars he's wrong.

i'll also bet him he's a lame geek toad and i'll win that one too
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Daily Horoscope for December 9

Sagittarius

Watch out. Your mind is working overtime in full analytical mode, but you may be leaping to unfounded conclusions and reading too much into situations. The result of all this is that you might start to suspect someone's honesty or loyalty, and wonder what exactly they're up to. Don't accuse them of anything awful just yet because it may turn out that you were totally wrong about them.

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