Merchant power generation must be like aviation: you have to go broke at least once. In the 1980's natural gas was cheap. Approximately 10 coal and 20 nuclear power plants were "stranded assessets." Natural gas drillers went broke on $1.50 gas.
In 2000, the natural gas supply started running out. The Clinton Administration had hearings on natural gas supply. California lights went out. Calpine and Enron went broke. Atomic and coal plants were no longer "stranded"
Now it is Act II. North America natural gas supply is in irreversible decline. LNG will not rescue us. The price of oil is driving internationa demand for LNG. Also LNG is not the same composition as pipeline natural gas. A few gas turbines will probably fry their first-stages during attempts to adjust the mixture.
The present cost of natural gas is $8/MMBtu, making power cost 8 cents/kWh. The good news is that the gas turbines are all bought and paid for, by investors that only got a bit tax writeoff. The bad news is that $90/barrel oil means equilibrium natural gas price will be $15/MMBtu. This makes the marginal power cost 15 cents/kWh, after zeroing out the gas plant investment.
Dynegy
Dynegy may profit from gas-burning plants
Runaway construction of natural-gas-burning power plants proved to be the independent power industry's undoing five years ago.
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| Topic | Updated | Last By | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal-fired power plant in Ark. to be operating ... | Jun '08 | Peter | 1 |
| Water for power? No bargain for Florida | May '08 | Kelly | 1 |
| Power plant a backward step | Apr '08 | Mary | 4 |

