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Most look to loan type and equity position as two of the most important factors when forecasting loan default. In fact, I believe that epidemic negative-equity is the overarching reason that the default, foreclosure and housing crisis remains in the early innings. But…negative-equity with a caveat.
While negative equity is a threat in and of itself, being in an over-leveraged household debt position is the true default catalyst for most in a negative-equity position. And being over-leveraged is also the primary default catalyst for those is a positive equity position. Being in a negative-equity position with lots of top line and disposable income each month is generally more of a mental burden than a reason to fly the coop.
How many homeowners are over-levered and at eminent risk of default? This answer is…a lot more than most think, especially those who got a loan from 2003-2007 due to a radical, yet subtle shift in loan guidelines across the mortgage spectrum that kicked-off the bubble-years.
Yes, even Prime full-doc borrowers in 30-year fixed mortgages with 20% equity who got their purchase or refi from 03-07 are at much greater risk than most think. Being over-levered was condoned – all the lenders, investors and loan programs operated in the same manner.
http://www.businessinsider.com/millions-more-...
What do households spend money in every year? The U.S. Census bureau provides the answers:
•$200 billion on furniture, appliances ($1,900 per household annually)
•$400 billion on vehicle purchases ($3,800 per household annually)
•$425 billion at restaurants ($4,000 per household annually)
•$9 billion at Starbucks ($85 per household annually)
•$250 billion on clothing ($2,400 per household annually)
•$100 billion on electronics ($950 per household annually)
•$60 billion on lottery tickets ($600 per household annually)
•$100 billion at gambling casinos ($950 per household annually)
•$60 billion on alcohol ($600 per household annually)
•$40 billion on smoking ($400 per household annually)
•$32 billion on spectator sports ($300 per household annually)
•$150 billion on entertainment ($1,400 per household annually)
•$100 billion on education ($950 per household annually)
•$300 billion to charity ($2,900 per household annually)
No wonder we’re in dire straits as a nation.