Buffet: "The Economy is in Shambles"

SueT wrote:

<quoted text>I'd be cautious of waving any flag and claiming victory. Let's not forget, the very people claiming these numbers are also the ones that helped get us here.

I've never see a GDP adjust more than a few tenths one way or another after this first number comes out. I don't think you understand how much it would take to move this number in a big direction.

It's amazing the amount of pessimisim out there. We finally get the proof everyone has been waiting for, and there are just as many doubts. I know Michigan is in the worst shape of any state, but still. Can I get one person to say things are getting better than when we were on the brink of collapse? Please?

Ryan wrote:

<quoted text>
Angie, there's your proof that I was trying to tell you was going to be there all along.

What do you want me to do and/or say? We've had one quarter of growth. That's fantastic. Would you rather I argue? Provide proof that these numbers are false? I'm ecstatic, now if only we could see growth here in Michigan.

I would wait though, just to make sure these numbers are accurate and that the growth continues before saying the worst is behind us. I still worry about the dramatic drop in the dollar resulting in incredible inflation. But only time will tell on that.

No matter how good the economy is getting, or will get, it doesnt matter to those who have no job and have a hard time making ends meet, or simply cannot make ends meet! Our company is slow just like everyone else's, and I've seen co-workers get laid off the last 2 yrs and it sucks. So until the unemployment in this state drastically drops, not many will be happy!

Ms Angie wrote:

<quoted text>
What do you want me to do and/or say? We've had one quarter of growth. That's fantastic. Would you rather I argue? Provide proof that these numbers are false? I'm ecstatic, now if only we could see growth here in Michigan.
I would wait though, just to make sure these numbers are accurate and that the growth continues before saying the worst is behind us. I still worry about the dramatic drop in the dollar resulting in incredible inflation. But only time will tell on that.

I don't know. It seemed your thesis back then was bent on waiting for economic growth, and we got it. Just pointing that out to you.

T_Man wrote:

No matter how good the economy is getting, or will get, it doesnt matter to those who have no job and have a hard time making ends meet, or simply cannot make ends meet! Our company is slow just like everyone else's, and I've seen co-workers get laid off the last 2 yrs and it sucks. So until the unemployment in this state drastically drops, not many will be happy!

Agreed. Although it is fair to point out that 95% of people that had a job last year have that same or a better job this year. That's not really that bad... unless, of course, you're one of that 5%.

Ryan wrote:

<quoted text>
I don't know. It seemed your thesis back then was bent on waiting for economic growth, and we got it. Just pointing that out to you.

My thesis back then was waiting for two consecutive quarters of economic growth to proclaim the recession was over. Or at least that was the text book definition. I do not recall, was there growth in the second quarter?

I appreciate you pointing it out to me. Yet it doesn't alleviate some of the deep concerns I have with our spending, our debt and the future value of our dollar.

T_Man wrote:

No matter how good the economy is getting, or will get, it doesnt matter to those who have no job and have a hard time making ends meet, or simply cannot make ends meet! Our company is slow just like everyone else's, and I've seen co-workers get laid off the last 2 yrs and it sucks. So until the unemployment in this state drastically drops, not many will be happy!

T_Man, you're absolutly correct. When the stats on the unemployment numbers begin to swing the other way, people might begin to breath a bit easier.
All to often we've had to listen the "brainless" governor in this state for months telling us how things are improving and yet the numbers don't match what's being said. There is still a lengthy way to go before Michigan turns around.
I could not even imagine what it would be like trying to find a job in this current economy in Michigan.

Ms Angie wrote:

<quoted text>
My thesis back then was waiting for two consecutive quarters of economic growth to proclaim the recession was over. Or at least that was the text book definition. I do not recall, was there growth in the second quarter?
I appreciate you pointing it out to me. Yet it doesn't alleviate some of the deep concerns I have with our spending, our debt and the future value of our dollar.

The text-book definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. The definition of a recession ending, however, is simply one quarter of GDP growth. So we're already there.

Not what you said in Post #8

Ms Angie wrote:

<quoted text>
My thesis back then was waiting for two consecutive quarters of economic growth to proclaim the recession was over. Or at least that was the text book definition. I do not recall, was there growth in the second quarter?
I appreciate you pointing it out to me. Yet it doesn't alleviate some of the deep concerns I have with our spending, our debt and the future value of our dollar.

Ryan wrote:

<quoted text>
I've never see a GDP adjust more than a few tenths one way or another after this first number comes out. I don't think you understand how much it would take to move this number in a big direction.
It's amazing the amount of pessimisim out there. We finally get the proof everyone has been waiting for, and there are just as many doubts. I know Michigan is in the worst shape of any state, but still. Can I get one person to say things are getting better than when we were on the brink of collapse? Please?

Ok, Ryan, Im not going to post an actual analysis of the GDP numbers here. I will start a topic on it. Seeing that you obviously didnt even start to look past the AP feed headline, you need to read it.

Ryan wrote:

<quoted text>
Angie, there's your proof that I was trying to tell you was going to be there all along.

I'll consider the recession over when my friends and family are all back to work making what they did 2 years ago and people I know who have never had a credit problem in their life stop losing their homes. Maybe the Recession is over on Wall Street, but it's sure not over on Main Street.

Recession Proof wrote:

Not what you said in Post #8
<quoted text>

So I was wrong. There was growth, my text book definition was off. Would you like a medal?

I said I was glad there was growth in the third quarter. That's fantastic. What would you like me to do now? It appears since there was third quarter growth we're completely out of the woods. I'm sure my neighbors who just lost their home (the third family in as many months) will have goosebumps they'll be so excited to hear this news.

Hurley35 wrote:

<quoted text>I'll consider the recession over when my friends and family are all back to work making what they did 2 years ago and people I know who have never had a credit problem in their life stop losing their homes. Maybe the Recession is over on Wall Street, but it's sure not over on Main Street.

That's the thing that makes Ryan's crowin such a pile of b*llshit.

The rise in GDP was almost entirely due to Cash for Clunkers and consumer spending.

CFC WILL NO LONGER BE THERE

Retailers as well as consumers are cutting back hard for Christmas.

Manufacturing is obviously not bouncing back.

Home sales have slowed.

(real)Unemployment is well north of 15%.

Not to mention all of the new taxes that congress is trying to ram through.

Wanna bet that the next GDP report, unless we all go broke buying Christmas gifts, and the government prints billions to fund more clunkers programs, has a big "-" sign next to that number?

SueT wrote:

<quoted text>T_Man, you're absolutly correct. When the stats on the unemployment numbers begin to swing the other way, people might begin to breath a bit easier.
All to often we've had to listen the "brainless" governor in this state for months telling us how things are improving and yet the numbers don't match what's being said. There is still a lengthy way to go before Michigan turns around.
I could not even imagine what it would be like trying to find a job in this current economy in Michigan.

Our wonderful Governor is trying to make a 28% unemployment rate amongst those who have gone through the "No Worker Left Behind" program as a "Success". That sounds more like Great Depression era numbers to me.

Hurley35 wrote:

<quoted text>I'll consider the recession over when my friends and family are all back to work making what they did 2 years ago and people I know who have never had a credit problem in their life stop losing their homes. Maybe the Recession is over on Wall Street, but it's sure not over on Main Street.

Well exactly and what baffles me is why the Bush/Cheney lovers even bring this subject up. How long did we hear them telling us that the foundation of the economy was strong. How long did they let banks and investment institutions market garbage because the SEC would not do anything about it despite specific warnings. They were selling stuff that make junk bonds look good, so called derivatives are the equivalent of playing the slots, well worse actually since the slots have other people's money in the machine and the odds are better.

Here's the "Real" GDP numbers...

http://www.topix.net/forum/city/grand-rapids-...

Ryan wrote:

<quoted text>
The text-book definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. The definition of a recession ending, however, is simply one quarter of GDP growth. So we're already there.

Well Ryan, we've been in a recession for a very long time.
Michigan has ranked last among the states, declining by 3 percent, while the national economy advanced by 12 percent.
www.comerica.com/Comerica_Content/Corporate_C... ...·

Dan Bana wrote:

<quoted text>
Well exactly and what baffles me is why the Bush/Cheney lovers even bring this subject up. How long did we hear them telling us that the foundation of the economy was strong. How long did they let banks and investment institutions market garbage because the SEC would not do anything about it despite specific warnings. They were selling stuff that make junk bonds look good, so called derivatives are the equivalent of playing the slots, well worse actually since the slots have other people's money in the machine and the odds are better.

The worst part, Pete? That shit hasn't stopped. It's not over. Fannie and Freddie are being pushed to provide more crap mortgages to be packaged and sold. What has changed in that department?

Ms Angie wrote:

<quoted text>
The worst part, Pete? That shit hasn't stopped. It's not over. Fannie and Freddie are being pushed to provide more crap mortgages to be packaged and sold. What has changed in that department?

still doing it??? how are they going to blame that on bush?

I liked this comment amongst a few others.

"Buffett repeated his criticism of "cap and trade" as a method to control pollution, saying it would be a huge, regressive tax."

I think the difference between the "numbers" being thrown around and the reality that Buffet speaks of is that you cannot have an economy turn around without consumer confidence. The info I heard credited the Cash For Clunkers and the $8,000 housing credit with the upswing. Neither of those programs have sustainability and in fact, if they keep the housing credit & 'expand it' I think there will be reprocussions of that too. Will it help? Sure - but who is getting the loans if people aren't working? Who is paying the taxes if so many aren't working? I think it's another smoke & mirror game.

You have wealthy people making decisions on their investments that are based on tax strategies - avoiding the Obama tax hikes now and it has impacted investments & the stability of the market. Then you've got Average Joe watching his stocks fall & then come back still wondering if 'the worst is over'. Americans are dealing with so many major issues right now it's a heirarchy of 'survival mode' and significant spending is not high on that list. Between the healthcare and cap & trade I think many businesses will remain in 'survival' and/or 'idle' mode and won't be growing significantly for a while. I don't see any optimism coming -most are just looking to get through these 4 years.