It depends upon the amount of new supply. But ultimately, energy costs are going to increase. 35 years ago, gas was 35 cents per gallon. Inflation and demand both increased the prices over the years. The OPEC generated shortage in the 70's drove prices up dramatically, and had us near rationing. Yet after they started pumping more, the price came down -- not to what it was before, but to a more reasonable level.Rational Man and others: I'm obviously not an expert on any of this. But it is my impression that if you were to expand drilling for oil off the coasts, in ANWAR, or other U.S. territory, all that oil would just become part of the "world supply" of oil. In other words, it would not be "earmarked" for the U.S. market alone. Any new sources would obviously increase the overall supply. But with worldwide demand for oil rising, my impression is that new domestic sources might slow, but not reverse, rising prices. Am I missing something here?
The Saudis could (if they wanted) increase their production by nearly 50%-- which would be about 5 - 10 % increase in the world market. That would have a huge effect on price.
Let's face it... we are never going to see gas below $3 per gallon again. But with increased production we should see some drop and stabilization. Also, when we get out of the economic doldrums and the dollar strengthens, that will also have an effect (world oil market prices in dollars -- a weak dollar drives up the price).
The reading I have done seems to point to a good chance for stable prices in the $3.25/gallon range, plus or minus 25 cents. That assumes adequate production and a strngthening dollar.
But if nothing is done, hold on to your hat. Worldwide demand increases every month. Even a small shortfall in production will lead to continuing dramatic increases in price. It pretty simple supply/demand economics. Sooner or later, an equilibrium will be reached where demand (reduced by high price) will equal supply -- and then prices will be stable. Increase supply, prices go down. Decrease demand, prices go down. Increase demand, prices go up.

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